According to @BullTheoryio, BTC is dropping as newly announced plans for heavy tariffs and export controls on Chinese industrial and strategic materials raise risks of supply-chain disruption, faster inflation, and slower global trade, tightening liquidity for high-beta assets (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the selling is driven by risk-off rotation into cash and gold, a potential delay in rate cuts due to tariff-driven inflation risk, and a leverage unwind first hitting alts and leveraged BTC, which feeds downside momentum (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, traders should watch the 116,000-118,000 zone as near-term BTC support and monitor funding rates, open interest, BTC inflows, and stablecoin movements for stabilization signals (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, a rebound could materialize if markets anticipate Fed easing or if tariff rhetoric cools, while persistent policy uncertainty keeps a discount on risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the roadmap is near-term volatility with support retests, medium-term accumulation as the narrative weakens, and a longer-term bullish setup into expected rate cuts and historically strong Q4 seasonality (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @rovercrc, BTC illiquid supply has reached new all‑time highs, suggesting more coins are held by entities that rarely sell and implying tighter available float for spot markets (source: Crypto Rover on X, Sep 20, 2025). Illiquid supply refers to coins controlled by holders with minimal spending history, a metric widely used in on‑chain analytics to gauge available float (source: Glassnode Academy, illiquid supply definition). Historically, increases in illiquid supply have coincided with falling exchange reserves and thinner spot liquidity, conditions that can amplify slippage during volatile moves (source: Glassnode research on illiquid supply vs. exchange balances; source: CryptoQuant, Exchange Reserves metric; source: Kaiko research on market depth and slippage). For trading, monitor BTC exchange balances for outflows, spot order book depth across major venues, and spreads to assess liquidity conditions and adjust order sizing and execution tactics accordingly (source: CryptoQuant exchange reserves dashboard; source: Kaiko spot market depth and spread data).